Phil Galfond reviews some of his hands played against Isildur1.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Phil Galfond (OMGClayAiken) vs. Isildur1
Labels: poker
Friday, February 26, 2010
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Nevada Casinos Lost $6.7 Billion in 2009
Las Vegas Sun Report: Casinos lost money for second time in history
The state Gaming Control Board today released its “Gaming Abstract” for fiscal year 2009, which ended June 30, showing a net loss of $6.7 billion among the 260 major casinos in Nevada.
Clubs along the Las Vegas Strip, which makes up 53 percent of the gambling revenue in Nevada, registered a $4.1 billion loss. The only bright spot, from a financial standpoint, was that people drank more. Sales of booze rose by 2.5 percent while revenue tied to casinos, rooms and food dropped. But 36 percent were recorded as “comp” drinks.
Nevada Gaming Abstract 2009
Labels: business
Ryan Fee's 6 Max NL Strategy Guide
Preface: This book will cover small stakes online 6 max ring games. All hands will be assumed to be 6 handed, though other situations will be discussed. The focus of this book will be the progression of a hand through preflop, flop, turn, and river.
Your hand ranges in general should adjust and be contrary to the way the game is playing.
This means that if the game is loose (meaning there are a lot of bad players, generally players with VPIP's higher than 28, for example a player that plays 32/5/1 is a weak bad player) you should be playing a tighter more solid game, bluffing less often (including semi-bluffs) and value betting thinly with 1 pair type hands. You should also play less starting hands.
On the flip side if the game is tighter you should loosen up your starting range (incorporating hands such as 65s UTG) to exploit the your opponent's tendency to fold. In these instances you should semi-bluff and bluff more, as you will find more fold equity.
Loose players will search for an excuse to call, whereas a tight player will look for an excuse to fold.
Ryan Fees 6max NL Guide
Study Group at 2+2
Labels: poker
Friday, February 19, 2010
The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and the Stock Market
Abstract: The central problem for gamblers is to find positive expectation bets. But the gambler also needs to know how to manage his money, i.e., how much to bet. In the stock market (more inclusively, the securities markets) the problem is similar but more complex. The gambler, who is now an “investor”, looks for “excess risk adjusted return”. In both these settings, we explore the use of the Kelly criterion, which is to maximize the expected value of the logarithm of wealth (“maximize expected logarithmic utility”). The criterion is known to economists and financial theorists by names such as the “geometric mean maximizing portfolio strategy”, maximizing logarithmic utility, the growth-optimal strategy, the capital growth criterion, etc. The author initiated the practical application of the Kelly criterion by using it for card counting in blackjack. We will present some useful formulas and methods to answer various natural questions about it that arise in blackjack and other gambling games. Then we illustrate its recent use in a successful casino sports betting system. Finally, we discuss its application to the securities markets where it has helped the author to make a thirty year total of 80 billion dollars worth of “bets”.
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Labels: SportsBetting
Kelly Criterion by Tom Weideman
Probably the best explanation of Kelly Criterion!
Read the Post
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Labels: SportsBetting
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Creating a Profitable Betting Strategy for Football by Using Statistical Modelling
Abstract: Our goal was to investigate the possibility of creating a profitable betting strategy for league football. We built the Poisson model for this purpose and examined its usefulness in the betting market. We also compared the Poisson model against other most commonly used prediction methods, such as Elo ratings and multinomial ordered probit model. In the thesis, we characterized most of the betting types but were mainly focused on fixed odds betting. The efficiency of using the model in more exotic forms of betting, such as Asian handicap and spread betting, was also briefly discussed.
According to market research studies, sports betting will have an increasing entertainment value in the future with the penetration of new technology. When majority of government-licensed bookmakers are making their transition from online terminals into the Internet, the competition will increase and bring more emphasis on risk management. In this thesis, we investigated the benefits of using a statistically acceptable model as a support of one’s decisions both from bookmaker's and punter's point of views and concluded that it would have potential to improve their performance.
The model proposed here was proven to be useful for football betting purposes. The validation indicated that it quite effectively captured many aspects of the game and finally enabled us to finish the season with positive return.
Read the Study
Labels: SportsBetting
Point Shaving in the NBA
Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the National Basketball Association’s Point Spread Betting Market
Abstract: In this paper, I examine the point spread betting market of the National Basketball Association for indications of cheating through point shaving. Previous studies have illustrated the contradictory phenomenon of simple, profitable betting rules persisting in a market of informed traders. While normally dismissed due to the salaries earned by professional players, I propose point shaving as an explanation for this persistent market inefficiency. Through analysis of the distribution and symmetry of the forecast errors, I arrive at a rough approximation of point shaving’s prevalence. In studying in–game scores, I find conclusive evidence that the point spread influences game outcomes and has causative effects on the probability of the favored team covering the point spread. The key economic concept these results support is that with the non–linear payout structure of the point spread betting market creating a discontinuity over the value of final game margins, individuals are altering their behavior in response to these distorted incentives.
Read the Study
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Labels: SportsBetting
Monday, February 15, 2010
The Man Who Makes the Odds: An Interview with “Roxy” Roxborough
Once a leading oddsmaker talks about the role played by probability and statistics in that business. This interview took place during June 1998.
Read the Article
And a little follow up to the interview
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Labels: SportsBetting
Wired: The High Tech Trifecta
They've got multimillion-dollar bankrolls, lightning-fast networks, and a probability-crunching system that leaves the odds in the dust. Meet the pari-mutuel fund managers who are redefining horse racing.
Read the Story
And here is an other similar story...
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Labels: SportsBetting
The Gang That Beat Las Vegas - The Story of The Computer Group
The Computer Group was the first modern betting ring, able - with the help of the gambler Billy Walters and his national network of bettors - to wager millions of dollars each week. The foundation was laid by Michael Kent, a naive 34-year-old computer expert, who had spent seven years constructing the first successful programs for handicapping football and basketball games. Settling in Las Vegas, Kent found a friend in Dr. Ivan Mindlin, an orthopedic surgeon who showed a strong interest in this brave, new science of computer betting
Read the Story
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Labels: SportsBetting
40 Years of WSOP
Take a trip down memory lane as we explore the origins of the tournament we love so much. Here we visit its humble beginnings of the Binions poker room, and talk to some of the greats who were there when it all began.
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Labels: poker
The History of Poker Documentary
Description:
The complete tale of the quintessentially American card game goes from smoke filled rooms to prime-time entertainment. Top players share unforgettable stories of winning hands and losing draws. Sit in on a high stakes game headed by Doyle Brunson, the "godfather of poker". Trace poker's remarkable spread across 19th-century America.
It traveled with riverboat gamblers along the Mississippi in the 1800s. Generals Grant, McClellan and Custer played during the Civil War. Men like Wild Bill Hickok dealt in the saloons and trading posts of the frontier. Today, it has broken out of the back rooms to become a prime-time attraction, with top tournament players winning millions of dollars a year--legally.
From the French settlers who brought it to the New World in the 19th century to high-stakes, televised championships, The History of Poker traces the past of this gripping game. Re-enactments, archival footage, period artwork and in-depth interviews with some of the top players alive highlight every aspect of the fascinating tale. And pull up a seat for a game presided over by some of most storied card players in history, including Doyle Brunson, the "godfather of poker".
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Labels: poker
One of a Kind: The Rise and Fall of Stu Ungar
This is a documentary about the life of poker legend Stu Ungar who died in 1998 of heart related conditions. He is widely considered to have been the greatest Texas hold 'em and gin rummy player of all time.
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Labels: poker
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